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The Grand National is the crown jewel of British horse racing, a furious clash of grit, stamina, and strategy across the arduous Aintree fences. Yet, amidst the drama and unpredictability, a unique pressure lies with the title of "favourite." For the 2025 Grand National, the pre-race conversation has been further electrified following the shock withdrawal of the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and initial frontrunner, Inothewayurthinkin.
After impressing in Gloucestershire and dismantling Galopin Des Champs' bid for a historic third straight Gold Cup triumph, many expected JP McManua's prized asset to be on display once again in Liverpool. The bookies duly installed him as a mightily short 5/1 front-runner. However, his owner has since confirmed that he won't be running at Aintree, thrusting three others into the limelight.
With Inothewayurthinkin stepping aside, Intense Raffles emerges as the leading contender. The Irish Grand National victor possesses bucket-loads of both stamina and determination, prompting online horse racing odds providers to make him the apt frontrunner at 6/1. Trained by Thomas Gibney, favourite has shown consistency and class, notably finishing second in the Bobbyjo Chase. However, as many argue, the Grand National’s unique demands can humble even the most reliable performers.
Hot on his heels is the seven-year-old Iroko, priced at 7/1. Owned by the legendary JP McManus, this horse has slowly but surely built a reputation for thriving over longer distances. Trainer Oliver Greenall insists that Iroko will relish the marathon test at Aintree, and with form on his side, he brings a mix of promise and potential to his challenge.
Finally, I Am Maximus, the reigning Aintree champion at 8/1, completes the trio of top contenders. Trained by Willie Mullins, this horse seeks to emulate the rare feat of successive wins at the National, as last achieved by Tiger Roll in 2018 and 2019. Despite a patchy season that included a respiratory setback earlier in the year, I Am Maximus has seen strong backing. His past success at Aintree demonstrates a critical familiarity with the fences and terrain.
The @RandoxHealth Grand National?
— Aintree Racecourse (@AintreeRaces) March 7, 2025
Completed ?
Will I Am Maximus defend his crown this year? ?? pic.twitter.com/fzzDGjmtrI
The "favourite" status in the Grand National is historically tinged with both promise and peril. Between 2011 and 2022, only Tiger Roll managed to live up to his pre-race billing. He romped to glory as a 10/1 contender in 2018, but it was his back-to-back triumph the following year that bucked the trend.
With everyone lumping on in the hopes of seeing a historic double, the undersized horse was backed into 4//1 in 2019. He duly got the job done and secured his status amongst the most successful racehorses of all time. But that triumph was certainly an exception to the trend. Surprisingly though, over the last two years, further exceptions have emerged.
The last two winners of the National were both favourites, ending the streak of inconsistent performances by fancied entries. I Am Maximus, as an 8/1 favourite, fuelled this narrative in 2024 when he claimed victory, following Corach Rambler’s win as the favourite in 2023. Whether Intense Raffles can follow in their footsteps and make it a favourite hat trick in 2025 remains to be seen.
Labelling a runner as a “favourite” in the Grand National is, at best, a double-edged sword. On one hand, this elite designation recognises consistency, class, and recent form. Famous horse racers and trainers like Thomas Gibney, Oliver Greenall, and Willie Mullins will undoubtedly use such plaudits to motivate their teams’ confidence heading into race day.
Yet, this label can also weigh heavily on the chosen horse. High expectations can spell disaster if a favourite falters early or becomes embroiled in mid-race melee. The added pressure on jockeys to maintain the perfect balance between aggression and reserve further complicates matters.
For Intense Raffles, Iroko, and I Am Maximus, the 2025 Grand National represents both an opportunity and an immense challenge. While carrying the "favourite" tag into Aintree can be seen as a sign of superiority, the historical context reveals that it’s not a guaranteed fast pass to glory. The past decade has shown that the unpredictability of the National regularly defeats even the most heavily backed entries.
For punters, the recent success of favourites might tempt them to back one of these top trio. However, the Grand National has a way of rewriting the script entirely. Whether the favourite tag in 2025 acts as a blessing or curse remains to be seen.
The upcoming showdown at Aintree isn't just one of the biggest events this April, it's the biggest of the year. And on the fifth, the Liverpudlian spectacle will unveil whether this recent trend of fancied victors persists or if another underdog once again steals the day.
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